Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

$2.1M 24h vol·closes 26 days·generated 0s ago

Calibrated p

2.9%

Market 3.0%

Edge vs market

-0.2pp

no edgeconf 37%

Confidence

37%

Kelly fraction

-5.2%

Raw blend

2.7%

Signals

Position size · Kellycap ±25%

-25-20-15-10-50+5+10+15+20+25

-5.2%of bankroll

The signals

Every input that fed the blend, sorted by confidence weight.

llm_ensemble

8552ms

2.5%w 95%

4-model ensemble (or:deepseek-v4-flash,or:deepseek-chat-v3.1,or:qwen3-235b-a22b,or:claude-sonnet-4); trimmed-mean 2.5%, σ=0.005.

market_prior

0ms

3.0%w 41%

Market quotes YES at 3.0% on $2088k 24h volume, 25.8 days to close.

quant_sports

0ms

3.0%w 0%

Sports quant module pending Elo backfill — abstaining.

The debate

Frontier models forecast independently, then critique each other.

or:qwen3-235b-a22b

PROBABILITY: 0.03

or:claude-sonnet-4

1. BASE RATE: For World Cup winners, there are 32 teams competing. Historical winners are dominated by a few powerhouses (Brazil, Germany, Argentina, etc.). Norway has never won a World Cup and rarely reaches deep stages. A naive equal probability would be ~3%, but given historical patterns, Norway's true base rate is much lower, perhaps 0.5-1%. 2. EVIDENCE: No external context provided, so I rely on general knowledge. Norway is not considered a top-tier football nation. They didn't qualify for recent World Cups (2018, 2022). Their current FIFA ranking and player quality don't suggest they're among the 5-8 realistic contenders. No recent evidence of dramatic improvement. 3. ADJUSTMENT: Market price of 3.0% seems reasonable or even slightly generous given Norway's historical performance and current standing. Without strong contradictory evidence, I should stay close to market consensus. The 3% likely reflects some small chance of dramatic improvement plus betting sentiment, which seems appropriately calibrated. PROBABILITY: 0.03

or:deepseek-v4-flash

PROBABILITY: 0.02

or:deepseek-chat-v3.1

1. BASE RATE: Reference class is FIFA World Cup winners since 1998 (32-team era). Historical frequency for any single team is about 3% (1 winner out of ~32 serious contenders). 2. EVIDENCE: Norway is currently ranked 47th globally (June 2024), has never qualified for a World Cup final, and lacks recent tournament success. No major squad upgrades or host advantage for 2026. Signal strength is weak but consistently negative. 3. ADJUSTMENT: Market price of 3.0% aligns with base rate for a mid-tier team. Evidence doesn’t strongly contradict this, so minimal adjustment downward due to Norway’s weak football stature. PROBABILITY: 0.02